Thursday, October 23, 2008

What kind of world do we live in?

First off, I thought I had better say at the outset that this post will be a bit more highbrow than the last few posts... as... well, this week my posts have been sans on the savant front.

The clerisy are going begging. I apologise.

So here we go...

The US election is hotting up to be a decidedly one-sided affair. But will things be different on Tuesday November 4?

A few of my more skeptical friends tend to always bring up an argument that goes along the lines of this: some people will say to the polling companies that they are voting for Obama on the basis of values and/or policies but when push comes to shove on election day, these people may change their tune purely on the basis that the colour of Barack Obama's skin is different from their own. Such an argument always leaves me dumbstruck. Because what IF it could be true???

Remember me?


And then I see articles that those crazy types that are so set on hegemony and deeply rooted in their own ethnocentric world are currently lying low. It makes my stomach turn.

(Note - the leader's surname is White. Join me in a giggle in exceptionally poor taste).

Let's all hope that a Rosslyn, Virginia situation does not play out in real life and that the white supremacists can muster a small semblance of tolerance on election day.

In other things US election, you can nail your colours firmly to the mast here.

You should also know that McCain has lost his gravy train. It is choo-choo-chooing on to other things GOP-related, like Congress races and moose hunting expeditions.

While the GOP has written off McCain, it doesn't mean you should! Remember that there is only a tenuous link between campaign moula and votes. More $$ does not necessarily mean more votes. It's all about causation. How do you separate the natural aspects of what you like about a candidate (similar views, well-founded policies... dark, handsome good looks) with the unnatural aspects of what you like about a candidate only because you were completely overwhelmed with incessant, in-ya-face advertising. The latter is reliant on money, the former is free.

Steven Levitt, of Freakanomics fame, studied the connection between $$ and votes and concluded:

[T]he amount of money spent by the candidates hardly matters at all. A winning candidate can cut his spending in half and lose only 1 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, a losing candidate who doubles his spending can expect to shift the vote in his favor by only that same 1 percent. What really matters for a political candidate is not how much you spend; what matters is who you are.

To simplify, it will all come down to these two options on election day:

1. Obama is the answer to some of the many problems in this country. I will vote for him.

OR

2. Obama is black. I need to vote for the other guy.

Sad.

No comments: